40%
Break-even win rate at 1:1.5 R:R
The Trailing-Drawdown-Optimized R:R Baseline
The Parameter
Target a Risk-to-Reward ratio of 1:1.5 — the mathematically proven optimum for trailing drawdown prop firms.
The Logic
Through exhaustive Monte Carlo simulation against real prop firm trailing drawdown parameters, 1:1.5 R:R emerges as the survival optimum. At 1:1.5, your break-even win rate is 40% — well within reach of any disciplined execution model. The key insight is that higher R:R ratios (1:3, 1:4) require you to hold winners longer, exposing open equity to the trailing floor's one-way ratchet. Every tick of unrealized profit that the trailing peak captures is a tick you can never get back. At 1:1.5, winners are realized quickly, minimizing the window where the trailing mechanism can lock against you. The math is clear: smaller, faster wins compound more safely under trailing drawdown than larger, slower wins that give the floor time to chase your peak.